After the supercycle: what the 2026 price reset means for Liberian cocoa
World prices have fallen roughly 60-65% from the record 2024/25 peak, yet remain above the old normal. LACRA's $4.73/kg reference price is the number to watch at the farm gate.
The great cocoa supercycle has unwound. From record New York futures above $11,000-12,000 per tonne around the turn of 2024/25, prices fell through 2025 to roughly $3,100/tonne by March 2026, spiked back toward $4,700 in May on weather worries, and have traded in the low $4,000s since. Volatile - but still comfortably above the $2,000-2,500 range that was normal for most of the decade before 2023.
The farmgate question
For the 2025/26 season LACRA announced, for the first time, an official farmgate reference price: US$4.73/kg for conventional Grade 1 cocoa. It is a reference, not a guarantee - sector analysts have already noted that realised field prices can sit below it, and our demo survey series on the market page illustrates exactly that gap. The lesson for members is unchanged in every price environment: documented, well-fermented Grade I lots hold their value; anonymous mixed lots absorb every discount going.
What to watch
- Main crop arrivals from October - the first full season under the reference price
- EU buyers requesting EUDR documentation earlier each season
- Whether the May-style weather rallies return as harvest develops
Market levels summarised here reflect published reporting as of mid-2026; the chart series on the market page is demo data pending a live feed.